Global Warming and Decision Theory

[SwampThing]

[quote] I almost have to ask myself if some of the more outspoken proponents of GW theory are only so just to be vindictive towards others.[/quote] In my neck of the woods I run into a lot of the spiteful opponents. Usually they make fun of those who drive "green" cars and talk about buying a Hummer or some other big SUV just to spite them. Make comments about "Al Gore" inventing the internet. Use terms like "loser hippies" to describe the proponents.

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[WoodlandParkPunk]

Fuck Al Gore. don't forget that he and Tipper were the prudes who wanted censorship of music 20 years ago.

As far as global warming, c'mon.... whatever happens is gonna happen whether we "go green" or not.

"You just pick a chord, go twang, and you've got music." ~ Sid Vicious

[MARV]

[quote][i]Originally posted by SwampThing[/i]
<br>[quote] I almost have to ask myself if some of the more outspoken proponents of GW theory are only so just to be vindictive towards others.[/quote] In my neck of the woods I run into a lot of the spiteful opponents. Usually they make fun of those who drive "green" cars and talk about buying a Hummer or some other big SUV just to spite them. Make comments about "Al Gore" inventing the internet. Use terms like "loser hippies" to describe the proponents.

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[/quote]

Perhaps you could direct your grievances towards the source of your ire? That is, if you really care so much about what others think. In this thread, feel free to share your thoughts on the global warming issue itself.

<a href="http://www.worldwildlife.org/cetaceans/index.cfm">Own. Rule. All.</a>

[marie3]

In spite of your view of global warming, tonight CNN Is presenting "Planet in Peril".

http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2007/planet.in.peril/

It looks like it will be worth watching. Things are changing in our world, regardless of the cause.

[coop41]

[quote][i]Originally posted by marie3[/i]
<br>In spite of your view of global warming, tonight CNN Is presenting "Planet in Peril".

http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2007/planet.in.peril/

It looks like it will be worth watching. Things are changing in our world, regardless of the cause.

[/quote]

Stephen Colbert had a funny take on this:

http://www.milkandcookies.com/link/75231/detail/

[SwampThing]

[quote]Perhaps you could direct your grievances towards the source of your ire? That is, if you really care so much about what others think. In this thread, feel free to share your thoughts on the global warming issue itself.[/quote] grievances? ire? My only point is that the obnoxious/condescending/vengful cheap shots come from both sides.

My position on GW is to error on the side of caution. For the most part I take the same approach as you do (with regards to being environmentally friendly). If it turns out we were wrong about GW and we went through all this trouble trying to be prevent it, what did we lose? We might even have pushed science to some new discoveries that benefit us all.

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[WolverineSyr]

I find it funny that people who have probably never taken a course in Environmental Science or Ecology somehow have an informed opinion on the issue.

Let's be honest, Al Gore is not the appropriate spokesperson for the issue any longer because politics and school girl name calling are louder than the facts. Leonardo Decaprio is simply a pretty face who serves as a mouthpiece. GW and his minons have made millions on oil, so they can't be trusted. The only people I trust or listen to on the topic are the ones who are doing research on Climate Change. Seems to me that there's fairly overwhelming in support that it's happening. Yes, the planet will take care of itself over time, but the real issue is our survival on it.

Climate change is a fact - it has been for 4 billion years. There's no argument there right? Adding crap to the environment accelerates a toxic environment right? A toxic environment only grows worse over time as you add more to it. It's not a big stretch of the imagination to put that together.

[tiger_mn]

[quote][i]Originally posted by WolverineSyr[/i]
<br>I find it funny that people who have probably never taken a course in Environmental Science or Ecology somehow have an informed opinion on the issue.

[/quote]

One should really take a course of reading on Climate Change before they talk about it, since it's a deep and thoug....

Oh, never mind.

[WolverineSyr]

Oh, bite me pussy cat.

But yeah, that did sound really pretentious on my part.

I just don't "get" the argument. I don't see what the financial gain is from doing more, as much as I hate this term: "green" things. Whereas business as usual hasn't been so great lately.

[hutter]

[quote][i]Originally posted by WoodlandParkPunk[/i]
<br>Fuck Al Gore. don't forget that he and Tipper were the prudes who wanted censorship of music 20 years ago.
[/quote]
And they won. And it all started because Tipper didn't want her precious kiddies to masturbate with a magazine like Darling Nikki.

The Gore's have never lived in RealityLand, so anything they champion is automatically suspect.

Whether or not man can make a sizeable dent in what is happening naturally, I suggest we learn from our neighbors on the other planets in our solar system. Maybe they can tell us why their planets are going through their own global warmings.

[Jefe]

Hutter, are you saying that someone has measured the average surface temps on other planets in this solar system and found that they are rising as well?

[hutter]

[quote][i]Originally posted by Jefe[/i]
<br>Hutter, are you saying that someone has measured the average surface temps on other planets in this solar system and found that they are rising as well?
[/quote]

Something to that effect, yeah.

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Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says

Kate Ravilious
National Geographic News
February 28, 2007

Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural and not a human-induced cause, according to one scientist's controversial theory.

Earth is currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast majority of climate scientists says is due to humans pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. (Get an overview: "Global Warming Fast Facts".)

Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy temperatures.

In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.

Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.

"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said.

Solar Cycles
Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun's heat output can account for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets.

Mars and Earth, for instance, have experienced periodic ice ages throughout their histories.

"Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said.

By studying fluctuations in the warmth of the sun, Abdussamatov believes he can see a pattern that fits with the ups and downs in climate we see on Earth and Mars.

Abdussamatov's work, however, has not been well received by other climate scientists.

"His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion," said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University.

"And they contradict the extensive evidence presented in the most recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report." (Related: "Global Warming 'Very Likely' Caused by Humans, World Climate Experts Say" [February 2, 2007].)

Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations."

Planets' Wobbles
The conventional theory is that climate changes on Mars can be explained primarily by small alterations in the planet's orbit and tilt, not by changes in the sun.

"Wobbles in the orbit of Mars are the main cause of its climate change in the current era," Oxford's Wilson explained. (Related: "Don't Blame Sun for Global Warming, Study Says" [September 13, 2006].)

All planets experience a few wobbles as they make their journey around the sun. Earth's wobbles are known as Milankovitch cycles and occur on time scales of between 20,000 and 100,000 years.

These fluctuations change the tilt of Earth's axis and its distance from the sun and are thought to be responsible for the waxing and waning of ice ages on Earth.

Mars and Earth wobble in different ways, and most scientists think it is pure coincidence that both planets are between ice ages right now.

"Mars has no [large] moon, which makes its wobbles much larger, and hence the swings in climate are greater too," Wilson said.

No Greenhouse
Perhaps the biggest stumbling block in Abdussamatov's theory is his dismissal of the greenhouse effect, in which atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide help keep heat trapped near the planet's surface.

He claims that carbon dioxide has only a small influence on Earth's climate and virtually no influence on Mars.

But "without the greenhouse effect there would be very little, if any, life on Earth, since our planet would pretty much be a big ball of ice," said Evan, of the University of Wisconsin.

Most scientists now fear that the massive amount of carbon dioxide humans are pumping into the air will lead to a catastrophic rise in Earth's temperatures, dramatically raising sea levels as glaciers melt and leading to extreme weather worldwide.

Abdussamatov remains contrarian, however, suggesting that the sun holds something quite different in store.

"The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said. "It will cause a steep cooling of the climate on Earth in 15 to 20 years."

[Jefe]

It would be interesting to know what the temperature has done on some of the other planets? If they weren't going through the wobbling orbit to the same extent that Mars is reported to have undergone, couldn't they be used as a sort of control group? I mean what if one of the other planets was going through a wobble away from the sun while Mars was wobbling toward the sun. If it warmed up as well, it would seem that a wobbling orbit toward the sun could not be to blame.

[SallyLightfoot]

I personally don't care one bit about Al Gore or his politics. Same for Leonardo.

But evidently there are a lot of people who have trouble separating the spokesperson from the message. And they reflexively assemble whatever evidence they can to conclude that the message is either false-- or that the opposite extreme must be true.

For example: <ul><li>Al Gore says humans are responsible for Global Warming. Gore is disreputable hypocrite because of (insert favorite smear here), so it only be false, or perhaps even good news for humankind!</li><li>Rosie O'Donnell is anti-war. If you agree with her then you want the terrorists to win.</li><li>Michael Moore wants universal health care. If you agree with this limousine liberal, then you're abetting George Soros' plot to socialize medicine and destroy america.</li><li>Heraldo Rivera believes illegals should not be deported. If you agree, then you must believe that borders should be opened and illegals allowed to overrun America.</li><li>Michael J. Fox is a spokesperson in favor of stem-cell research. If you agree with a faker like that, then you probably believe babies should be killed for research.</li><li>Ellen Degeneres is a proponent of gay marriage. If you agree with that, then you lack family values, want to attack conventional marriage, and probably believe that people should be allowed to marry farm animals.</li><li>Janeane Garofolo is a raving athiest. If you're an athiest, you have no concept of morals and believe that no-one should be allowed to practice religion.</li></ul>This list of issues is on parade 24x7 on talk-radio, fox news, the web and other branches of pundit-driven media. It's astounding that some people are more comfortable embracing the nearest extreme, absurd polemic than to seek more reason-based positions in between.

[shovelbum]

Too true.

I would also like to point out that while a lot of people are using this thread to expound on their own views on global warming they have, as yet, to respond to the POINT of NWR's post, which is this:

Whether you believe in GW or not, is it worth the risk to not do anything about it?

I say, unequivecably, NO.



"Man is not a rational animal, he is a rationalizing animal." ~Robert Heinlein