by coop41 » Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:33 am
Unfortunately, the press has made ridiculous statements that have little or no basis in fact and seem to be repeated endlessly by people as shovelbum has done.
First, some important facts:
The headline screams [b]Foreclosures Up 75%!!!![/b] yet still, the number of homes in foreclosure is just over 1%.
ARM products have been around for a long time and have been through many up and down cycles. A lot of people have used ARM's to buy homes both for wise financially strategic methods and for cost saving measures.
Are things bad? The worst I've seen in the 24 years I have been doing this. But not because of ARM's
The Housing industry and Mortgage industry have fueled the economy for some time, even being credited for keeping us out of recession earlier this decade. Consumers demanded less money down and less documentation and the credit markets foolishly agreed. Wall Street had an insatiable desire for mortgages, mortgage companies couldn't keep up and every yahoo in the world became a mortgage loan officer.
Although there were many unscrupulous mortgage loan officers, getting people in on ARM's was not part of their evil plan. Sub-prime mortgages and having the consumers pay exorbinant fees, many undisclosed, or outright loan fraud by inflating income or bank account figures was much more likely.
I just don't buy the fact that a new homeowner is ignorant to the fact they had an ARM and are completely unaware of when it changes, Besides, the rates are so damn low right now, it is likely they could refinance to a similar, if not lower rate.
In my opinion, the current market conditions are a product of consumer greed (Hey- let's buy an investment property ...or let's take out all of our equity and buy those jet skis we always wanted!) and corporate greed (mortgage companies, REALTORS and Wall Street).
As far as bailing out people, let's look at a typical bail out:
Mr. and Mrs. Jones have poor credit as they continually are behind on their bills and have a total disregard for credit. In other words, a normal person wouldn't lend them $20 because they doubt they will ever see the money again. Realtor checks their pulse and sells them a home they cannot afford. Mortgage Company eagerly gives them a loan at a high interest rate, no money (or little money) down on the guess that they will struggle to make their payments but the market will keep appreciating and they will ultimately sell their home. Market turns, buyer stops making payment, note holder takes 6-12 months to foreclose (and believe me, this number will increase) so buyer with poor credit, who hasn't made payments in who knows how long, lives rent free until the home is foreclosed upon, and we are thinking of bailing them out? So the question is, was it the mortgage company's fault? Yes! Was it the Realtors fault? Yes! Was it the homebuyers fault? You bet!!!!!
It's a mighty fine mess we have created, some areas of the country quite a bit more than others (California, Arizona, Nevada).
Recent tightening in mortgage guidelines, an over-reaction to current market conditions, has had a dramatic impact, most of which the general public hasn't seen or heard about yet. The next time you go to buy a home or refinance your current home, you might be surprised.